2022 Deaths – All Causes – Both Sexes – 85-89 | Alberta, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly men and women aged 85-89 in Alberta

1. 4,435 of 4,435 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is down 1% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 4,494 of 4,494 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 59 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 3,082 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are down 1% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men and women aged 85-89 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 4,435 of 45,118 elderly men and women aged 85-89 living in Alberta died from All Causes.

4,435 ÷ 45,118 = 0.09830 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 41,393 deaths from All Causes among 415,524 elderly men and women aged 85-89 living in Alberta in the 14 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

41,393 ÷ 415,524 = 0.09962 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

45,118 X 0.09962 = 4,494 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

4,435 – 4,494 = -59

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

4,435 ÷ 4,494 = 0.9867

This reveals 59 lives saved and is 98.67% of what we expected (a decrease of 1%) in deaths from All Causes among elderly men and women aged 85-89 living in Alberta in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

26,303 ÷ 294,387 = 0.08935 (5-yr CDR)

45,118(2022 pop) X 0.08935 = 4,031 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

4,435 – 4,031 = 404 or 404 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

4,435 ÷ 4,031 = 1.1000 or an increase of 10%

for deaths from All Causes among elderly men and women aged 85-89 living in Alberta in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

339,505 X 0.09962 = 33,820 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

30738 – 33,820 = -3,082 or 3,082 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

30,738 ÷ 33,820 = 0.9088 or a decrease of 9%

in deaths from All Causes among elderly men and women aged 85-89 living in Alberta in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.