2022 Deaths – All Causes – Male – 45-49 | Alberta, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for men aged 45-49 in Alberta

1. 487 of 487 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 23% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 396 of 396 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 91 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 139 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 23% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many men aged 45-49 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 487 of 150,903 men aged 45-49 living in Alberta died from All Causes.

487 ÷ 150,903 = 0.00323 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 5,204 deaths from All Causes among 1,984,318 men aged 45-49 living in Alberta in the 14 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

5,204 ÷ 1,984,318 = 0.00262 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

150,903 X 0.00262 = 396 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

487 – 396 = 91

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

487 ÷ 396 = 1.2259

This reveals 91 lives lost and is 122.59% of what we expected (an increase of 23%) in deaths from All Causes among men aged 45-49 living in Alberta in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

2,687 ÷ 1,006,304 = 0.00267 (5-yr CDR)

150,903(2022 pop) X 0.00267 = 403 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

487 – 403 = 84 or 84 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

487 ÷ 403 = 1.2041 or an increase of 20%

for deaths from All Causes among men aged 45-49 living in Alberta in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

1,157,207 X 0.00262 = 3,035 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

3174 – 3,035 = 139 or 139 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

3,174 ÷ 3,035 = 1.0419 or an increase of 4%

in deaths from All Causes among men aged 45-49 living in Alberta in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.