2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Male – 40-44 | Alberta, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for men aged 40-44 in Alberta

1. 110 of 447 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 24.61% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is up 1,092% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 8 of 291 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 102 excess deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 156 excess All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 475 excess deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 397 excess All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of Alberta’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are up 1,092% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many men aged 40-44 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 110 of 171,267 men aged 40-44 living in Alberta died from Unknown Causes.

110 ÷ 171,267 = 0.00064 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from Unknown Causes

The table shows there were a total of 87 deaths from Unknown Causes among 1,982,398 men aged 40-44 living in Alberta in the 14 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

87 ÷ 1,982,398 = 0.00004 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

171,267 X 0.00004 = 8 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

110 – 8 = 102

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

110 ÷ 8 = 11.9190

This reveals 102 lives lost and is 1,191.90% of what we expected (an increase of 1,092%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among men aged 40-44 living in Alberta in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

420 ÷ 1,082,184 = 0.00039 (5-yr CDR)

171,267(2022 pop) X 0.00039 = 66 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

110 – 66 = 44 or 44 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

110 ÷ 66 = 1.6133 or an increase of 61%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among men aged 40-44 living in Alberta in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

1,253,451 X 0.00004 = 55 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

530 – 55 = 475 or 475 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

530 ÷ 55 = 7.8468 or an increase of 685%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among men aged 40-44 living in Alberta in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.