2023 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Male – Ages 80-84 | Canada

2023 vs New Normal™ for elderly men aged 80-84 in Canada

1. 754 of 23,912 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 3.15% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is up 66% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 450 of 30,061 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 304 excess deaths from Unknown Causes in 2023.
6. 6,149 fewer than expected All Cause deaths in 2023.
7. 1,091 excess deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2023)
8. 40,502 fewer than expected All Cause deaths over the first 9 years of Canada’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are up 66% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2023 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men aged 80-84 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2023, 754 of 410,284 elderly men aged 80-84 living in Canada died from Unknown Causes.

754 ÷ 410,284 = 0.00184 (2023 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from Unknown Causes

The table shows there were a total of 4,198 deaths from Unknown Causes among 3,825,324 elderly men aged 80-84 living in Canada in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

4,198 ÷ 3,825,324 = 0.00110 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2023 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

410,284 X 0.00110 = 450 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

754 – 450 = 304

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

754 ÷ 450 = 1.6595

This reveals 304 lives lost and is 165.95% of what we expected (an increase of 66%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men aged 80-84 living in Canada in 2023, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

3,840 ÷ 2,781,450 = 0.00138 (5-yr CDR)

410,284(2023 pop) X 0.00138 = 566 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

754 – 566 = 188 or 188 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

754 ÷ 566 = 1.3216 or an increase of 32%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men aged 80-84 living in Canada in 2023, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

3,191,734 X 0.00110 = 3,503 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

4594 – 3,503 = 1,091 or 1,091 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

4,594 ÷ 3,503 = 1.2997 or an increase of 30%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men aged 80-84 living in Canada in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.