2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Male – 70-74 | Newfoundland, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly men aged 70-74 in Newfoundland

1. 20 of 468 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 4.27% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is up 309% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 5 of 577 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 15 excess deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 109 fewer than expected All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 32 excess deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 922 fewer than expected All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of Newfoundland’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are up 309% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men aged 70-74 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 20 of 16,963 elderly men aged 70-74 living in Newfoundland died from Unknown Causes.

20 ÷ 16,963 = 0.00118 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from Unknown Causes

The table shows there were a total of 37 deaths from Unknown Causes among 133,060 elderly men aged 70-74 living in Newfoundland in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

37 ÷ 133,060 = 0.00028 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

16,963 X 0.00028 = 5 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

20 – 5 = 15

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

20 ÷ 5 = 4.0929

This reveals 15 lives lost and is 409.29% of what we expected (an increase of 309%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men aged 70-74 living in Newfoundland in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

45 ÷ 101,403 = 0.00044 (5-yr CDR)

16,963(2022 pop) X 0.00044 = 8 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

20 – 8 = 12 or 12 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

20 ÷ 8 = 2.5983 or an increase of 160%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men aged 70-74 living in Newfoundland in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

118,366 X 0.00028 = 33 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

65 – 33 = 32 or 32 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

65 ÷ 33 = 1.9063 or an increase of 91%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men aged 70-74 living in Newfoundland in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.