2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Male – Ages 45-49 | Nova Scotia, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for men aged 45-49 in Nova Scotia

1. 4 of 5,824 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 0.07% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is down 86% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 23 of 3,039 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 19 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 2,785 excess All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 151 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 16,946 excess All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of Nova Scotia’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are down 86% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many men aged 45-49 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 4 of 500,620 men aged 45-49 living in Nova Scotia died from Unknown Causes.

4 ÷ 500,620 = 0.00001 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from Unknown Causes

The table shows there were a total of 43 deaths from Unknown Causes among 948,664 men aged 45-49 living in Nova Scotia in the 14 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

43 ÷ 948,664 = 0.00005 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

500,620 X 0.00005 = 23 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

4 – 23 = -19

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

4 ÷ 23 = 0.1444

This reveals 19 lives saved and is 14.44% of what we expected (a decrease of 86%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among men aged 45-49 living in Nova Scotia in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

17 ÷ 3,292,830 = 0.00001 (5-yr CDR)

500,620(2022 pop) X 0.00001 = 3 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

4 – 3 = 1 or 1 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

4 ÷ 3 = 0.5270 or an increase of 47%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among men aged 45-49 living in Nova Scotia in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

3,793,450 X 0.00005 = 172 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

21 – 172 = -151 or 151 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

21 ÷ 172 = 0.1001 or a decrease of 90%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among men aged 45-49 living in Nova Scotia in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.