2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Female – 50-54 | Ontario, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for women aged 50-54 in Ontario

1. 136 of 1,188 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 11.45% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is up 502% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 18 of 1,245 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 118 excess deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 57 fewer than expected All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 298 excess deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 669 fewer than expected All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of Ontario’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are up 502% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many women aged 50-54 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 136 of 484,244 women aged 50-54 living in Ontario died from Unknown Causes.

136 ÷ 484,244 = 0.00028 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from Unknown Causes

The table shows there were a total of 255 deaths from Unknown Causes among 6,959,621 women aged 50-54 living in Ontario in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

255 ÷ 6,959,621 = 0.00004 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

484,244 X 0.00004 = 18 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

136 – 18 = 118

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

136 ÷ 18 = 6.0217

This reveals 118 lives lost and is 602.17% of what we expected (an increase of 502%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among women aged 50-54 living in Ontario in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

312 ÷ 3,601,894 = 0.00009 (5-yr CDR)

484,244(2022 pop) X 0.00009 = 42 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

136 – 42 = 94 or 94 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

136 ÷ 42 = 2.9067 or an increase of 191%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among women aged 50-54 living in Ontario in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

4,086,138 X 0.00004 = 150 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

448 – 150 = 298 or 298 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

448 ÷ 150 = 2.3508 or an increase of 135%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among women aged 50-54 living in Ontario in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.