2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Female – 65-69 | Ontario, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly women aged 65-69 in Ontario

1. 160 of 3,675 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 4.35% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is up 253% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 41 of 4,505 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 119 excess deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 830 fewer than expected All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 266 excess deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 5,278 fewer than expected All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of Ontario’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are up 253% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly women aged 65-69 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 160 of 447,008 elderly women aged 65-69 living in Ontario died from Unknown Causes.

160 ÷ 447,008 = 0.00036 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from Unknown Causes

The table shows there were a total of 367 deaths from Unknown Causes among 4,019,597 elderly women aged 65-69 living in Ontario in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

367 ÷ 4,019,597 = 0.00009 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

447,008 X 0.00009 = 41 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

160 – 41 = 119

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

160 ÷ 41 = 3.5333

This reveals 119 lives lost and is 353.33% of what we expected (an increase of 253%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly women aged 65-69 living in Ontario in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

403 ÷ 2,805,634 = 0.00014 (5-yr CDR)

447,008(2022 pop) X 0.00014 = 64 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

160 – 64 = 96 or 96 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

160 ÷ 64 = 2.3297 or an increase of 133%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly women aged 65-69 living in Ontario in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

3,252,642 X 0.00009 = 297 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

563 – 297 = 266 or 266 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

563 ÷ 297 = 1.7086 or an increase of 71%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly women aged 65-69 living in Ontario in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.