2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Female – 85-89 | Ontario, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly women aged 85-89 in Ontario

1. 476 of 10,657 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 4.47% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is up 80% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 263 of 10,891 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 213 excess deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 234 fewer than expected All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 352 excess deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 7,431 fewer than expected All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of Ontario’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are up 80% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly women aged 85-89 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 476 of 125,146 elderly women aged 85-89 living in Ontario died from Unknown Causes.

476 ÷ 125,146 = 0.00380 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from Unknown Causes

The table shows there were a total of 2,847 deaths from Unknown Causes among 1,355,093 elderly women aged 85-89 living in Ontario in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

2,847 ÷ 1,355,093 = 0.00210 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

125,146 X 0.00210 = 263 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

476 – 263 = 213

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

476 ÷ 263 = 1.8018

This reveals 213 lives lost and is 180.18% of what we expected (an increase of 80%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly women aged 85-89 living in Ontario in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

1,894 ÷ 835,260 = 0.00227 (5-yr CDR)

125,146(2022 pop) X 0.00227 = 284 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

476 – 284 = 192 or 192 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

476 ÷ 284 = 1.6700 or an increase of 67%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly women aged 85-89 living in Ontario in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

960,406 X 0.00210 = 2,018 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

2370 – 2,018 = 352 or 352 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

2,370 ÷ 2,018 = 1.1690 or an increase of 17%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly women aged 85-89 living in Ontario in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.