2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Male – 70-74 | Ontario, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly men aged 70-74 in Ontario

1. 314 of 7,065 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 4.44% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is up 253% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 86 of 8,747 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 228 excess deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 1,682 fewer than expected All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 470 excess deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 14,065 fewer than expected All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of Ontario’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are up 253% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men aged 70-74 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 314 of 329,862 elderly men aged 70-74 living in Ontario died from Unknown Causes.

314 ÷ 329,862 = 0.00095 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from Unknown Causes

The table shows there were a total of 762 deaths from Unknown Causes among 2,931,745 elderly men aged 70-74 living in Ontario in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

762 ÷ 2,931,745 = 0.00026 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

329,862 X 0.00026 = 86 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

314 – 86 = 228

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

314 ÷ 86 = 3.5267

This reveals 228 lives lost and is 352.67% of what we expected (an increase of 253%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men aged 70-74 living in Ontario in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

763 ÷ 2,006,596 = 0.00038 (5-yr CDR)

329,862(2022 pop) X 0.00038 = 125 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

314 – 125 = 189 or 189 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

314 ÷ 125 = 2.4393 or an increase of 144%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men aged 70-74 living in Ontario in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

2,336,458 X 0.00026 = 607 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

1077 – 607 = 470 or 470 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

1,077 ÷ 607 = 1.7078 or an increase of 71%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men aged 70-74 living in Ontario in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.