2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Male – 80-84 | Ontario, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly men aged 80-84 in Ontario

1. 304 of 8,769 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 3.47% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is up 91% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 158 of 10,591 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 146 excess deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 1,822 fewer than expected All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 297 excess deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 12,750 fewer than expected All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of Ontario’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are up 91% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men aged 80-84 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 304 of 149,941 elderly men aged 80-84 living in Ontario died from Unknown Causes.

304 ÷ 149,941 = 0.00203 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from Unknown Causes

The table shows there were a total of 1,553 deaths from Unknown Causes among 1,476,840 elderly men aged 80-84 living in Ontario in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

1,553 ÷ 1,476,840 = 0.00105 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

149,941 X 0.00105 = 158 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

304 – 158 = 146

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

304 ÷ 158 = 1.9099

This reveals 146 lives lost and is 190.99% of what we expected (an increase of 91%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men aged 80-84 living in Ontario in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

1,132 ÷ 933,475 = 0.00121 (5-yr CDR)

149,941(2022 pop) X 0.00121 = 182 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

304 – 182 = 122 or 122 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

304 ÷ 182 = 1.6582 or an increase of 66%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men aged 80-84 living in Ontario in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

1,083,416 X 0.00105 = 1,139 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

1436 – 1,139 = 297 or 297 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

1,436 ÷ 1,139 = 1.2486 or an increase of 25%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men aged 80-84 living in Ontario in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.