2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Male – 85-89 | Ontario, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly men aged 85-89 in Ontario

1. 372 of 9,870 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 3.77% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is up 87% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 198 of 9,940 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 174 excess deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 70 fewer than expected All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 329 excess deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 6,042 fewer than expected All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of Ontario’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are up 87% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men aged 85-89 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 372 of 85,806 elderly men aged 85-89 living in Ontario died from Unknown Causes.

372 ÷ 85,806 = 0.00434 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from Unknown Causes

The table shows there were a total of 1,648 deaths from Unknown Causes among 714,553 elderly men aged 85-89 living in Ontario in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

1,648 ÷ 714,553 = 0.00231 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

85,806 X 0.00231 = 198 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

372 – 198 = 174

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

372 ÷ 198 = 1.8716

This reveals 174 lives lost and is 187.16% of what we expected (an increase of 87%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men aged 85-89 living in Ontario in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

1,412 ÷ 544,962 = 0.00259 (5-yr CDR)

85,806(2022 pop) X 0.00259 = 222 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

372 – 222 = 150 or 150 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

372 ÷ 222 = 1.6668 or an increase of 67%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men aged 85-89 living in Ontario in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

630,768 X 0.00231 = 1,455 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

1784 – 1,455 = 329 or 329 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

1,784 ÷ 1,455 = 1.2210 or an increase of 22%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men aged 85-89 living in Ontario in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.