2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Male – Ages 90+ | Ontario, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly men aged 90+ in Ontario

1. 413 of 9,344 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 4.42% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is up 68% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 246 of 8,532 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 167 excess deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 812 excess All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 335 excess deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 697 excess All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of Ontario’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are up 68% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men aged 90+ were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 413 of 45,425 elderly men aged 90+ living in Ontario died from Unknown Causes.

413 ÷ 45,425 = 0.00909 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from Unknown Causes

The table shows there were a total of 1,409 deaths from Unknown Causes among 260,218 elderly men aged 90+ living in Ontario in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

1,409 ÷ 260,218 = 0.00541 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

45,425 X 0.00541 = 246 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

413 – 246 = 167

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

413 ÷ 246 = 1.6760

This reveals 167 lives lost and is 167.60% of what we expected (an increase of 68%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men aged 90+ living in Ontario in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

1,602 ÷ 264,866 = 0.00605 (5-yr CDR)

45,425(2022 pop) X 0.00605 = 275 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

413 – 275 = 138 or 138 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

413 ÷ 275 = 1.5007 or an increase of 50%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men aged 90+ living in Ontario in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

310,291 X 0.00541 = 1,680 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

2015 – 1,680 = 335 or 335 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

2,015 ÷ 1,680 = 1.1971 or an increase of 20%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men aged 90+ living in Ontario in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.