2022 Deaths – All Causes – Male – 75-79 | Quebec, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly men aged 75-79 in Quebec

1. 6,007 of 6,007 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is down 21% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 7,612 of 7,612 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 1,605 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 10,773 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are down 21% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men aged 75-79 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 6,007 of 163,751 elderly men aged 75-79 living in Quebec died from All Causes.

6,007 ÷ 163,751 = 0.03668 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 65,158 deaths from All Causes among 1,401,691 elderly men aged 75-79 living in Quebec in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

65,158 ÷ 1,401,691 = 0.04649 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

163,751 X 0.04649 = 7,612 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

6,007 – 7,612 = -1,605

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

6,007 ÷ 7,612 = 0.7890

This reveals 1,605 lives saved and is 78.90% of what we expected (a decrease of 21%) in deaths from All Causes among elderly men aged 75-79 living in Quebec in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

33,495 ÷ 917,766 = 0.03650 (5-yr CDR)

163,751(2022 pop) X 0.03650 = 5,976 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

6,007 – 5,976 = 31 or 31 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

6,007 ÷ 5,976 = 1.0049 or an increase of 0%

for deaths from All Causes among elderly men aged 75-79 living in Quebec in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

1,081,517 X 0.04649 = 50,275 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

39502 – 50,275 = -10,773 or 10,773 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

39,502 ÷ 50,275 = 0.7856 or a decrease of 21%

in deaths from All Causes among elderly men aged 75-79 living in Quebec in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.