2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Both Sexes – Ages 45-49 | Quebec, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for people aged 45-49 in Quebec

1. 145 of 870 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 16.67% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is up 267% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 34 of 1,201 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 111 excess deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 331 fewer than expected All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 249 excess deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 2,524 fewer than expected All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of Quebec’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are up 267% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many people aged 45-49 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 145 of 541,098 people aged 45-49 living in Quebec died from Unknown Causes.

145 ÷ 541,098 = 0.00027 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from Unknown Causes

The table shows there were a total of 586 deaths from Unknown Causes among 9,307,511 people aged 45-49 living in Quebec in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

586 ÷ 9,307,511 = 0.00006 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

541,098 X 0.00006 = 34 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

145 – 34 = 111

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

145 ÷ 34 = 3.6729

This reveals 111 lives lost and is 367.29% of what we expected (an increase of 267%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among people aged 45-49 living in Quebec in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

370 ÷ 3,679,905 = 0.00010 (5-yr CDR)

541,098(2022 pop) X 0.00010 = 54 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

145 – 54 = 91 or 91 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

145 ÷ 54 = 2.4241 or an increase of 142%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among people aged 45-49 living in Quebec in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

4,221,003 X 0.00006 = 266 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

515 – 266 = 249 or 249 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

515 ÷ 266 = 1.6723 or an increase of 67%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among people aged 45-49 living in Quebec in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.