2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Both Sexes – Ages 50-54 | Quebec, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for people aged 50-54 in Quebec

1. 191 of 1,391 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 13.73% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is up 384% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 34 of 1,803 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 157 excess deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 412 fewer than expected All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 392 excess deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 3,416 fewer than expected All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of Quebec’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are up 384% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many people aged 50-54 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 191 of 520,698 people aged 50-54 living in Quebec died from Unknown Causes.

191 ÷ 520,698 = 0.00037 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from Unknown Causes

The table shows there were a total of 587 deaths from Unknown Causes among 8,930,525 people aged 50-54 living in Quebec in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

587 ÷ 8,930,525 = 0.00007 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

520,698 X 0.00007 = 34 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

191 – 34 = 157

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

191 ÷ 34 = 4.8437

This reveals 157 lives lost and is 484.37% of what we expected (an increase of 384%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among people aged 50-54 living in Quebec in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

504 ÷ 4,090,347 = 0.00012 (5-yr CDR)

520,698(2022 pop) X 0.00012 = 64 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

191 – 64 = 127 or 127 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

191 ÷ 64 = 2.7535 or an increase of 175%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among people aged 50-54 living in Quebec in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

4,611,045 X 0.00007 = 303 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

695 – 303 = 392 or 392 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

695 ÷ 303 = 1.9903 or an increase of 99%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among people aged 50-54 living in Quebec in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.