2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Both Sexes – Ages 55-59 | Quebec, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for people aged 55-59 in Quebec

1. 252 of 2,613 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 9.64% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is up 361% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 49 of 3,306 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 203 excess deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 693 fewer than expected All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 527 excess deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 5,286 fewer than expected All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of Quebec’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are up 361% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many people aged 55-59 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 252 of 598,835 people aged 55-59 living in Quebec died from Unknown Causes.

252 ÷ 598,835 = 0.00042 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from Unknown Causes

The table shows there were a total of 641 deaths from Unknown Causes among 7,876,663 people aged 55-59 living in Quebec in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

641 ÷ 7,876,663 = 0.00008 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

598,835 X 0.00008 = 49 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

252 – 49 = 203

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

252 ÷ 49 = 4.6052

This reveals 203 lives lost and is 460.52% of what we expected (an increase of 361%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among people aged 55-59 living in Quebec in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

686 ÷ 4,453,785 = 0.00015 (5-yr CDR)

598,835(2022 pop) X 0.00015 = 92 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

252 – 92 = 160 or 160 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

252 ÷ 92 = 2.5655 or an increase of 157%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among people aged 55-59 living in Quebec in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

5,052,620 X 0.00008 = 411 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

938 – 411 = 527 or 527 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

938 ÷ 411 = 2.0316 or an increase of 103%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among people aged 55-59 living in Quebec in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.