2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Both Sexes – Ages 70-74 | Quebec, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly men and women aged 70-74 in Quebec

1. 353 of 8,436 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 4.18% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is up 235% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 101 of 10,093 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 252 excess deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 1,657 fewer than expected All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 527 excess deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 12,607 fewer than expected All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of Quebec’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are up 235% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men and women aged 70-74 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 353 of 454,301 elderly men and women aged 70-74 living in Quebec died from Unknown Causes.

353 ÷ 454,301 = 0.00078 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from Unknown Causes

The table shows there were a total of 923 deaths from Unknown Causes among 4,154,451 elderly men and women aged 70-74 living in Quebec in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

923 ÷ 4,154,451 = 0.00022 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

454,301 X 0.00022 = 101 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

353 – 101 = 252

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

353 ÷ 101 = 3.3467

This reveals 252 lives lost and is 334.67% of what we expected (an increase of 235%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men and women aged 70-74 living in Quebec in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

903 ÷ 2,825,897 = 0.00032 (5-yr CDR)

454,301(2022 pop) X 0.00032 = 145 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

353 – 145 = 208 or 208 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

353 ÷ 145 = 2.3579 or an increase of 136%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men and women aged 70-74 living in Quebec in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

3,280,198 X 0.00022 = 729 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

1256 – 729 = 527 or 527 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

1,256 ÷ 729 = 1.6492 or an increase of 65%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men and women aged 70-74 living in Quebec in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.