2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Both Sexes – Ages 80-84 | Quebec, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly men and women aged 80-84 in Quebec

1. 422 of 11,549 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 3.65% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is up 90% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 220 of 13,148 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 202 excess deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 1,599 fewer than expected All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 392 excess deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 11,587 fewer than expected All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of Quebec’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are up 90% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men and women aged 80-84 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 422 of 217,454 elderly men and women aged 80-84 living in Quebec died from Unknown Causes.

422 ÷ 217,454 = 0.00194 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from Unknown Causes

The table shows there were a total of 2,350 deaths from Unknown Causes among 2,321,110 elderly men and women aged 80-84 living in Quebec in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

2,350 ÷ 2,321,110 = 0.00101 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

217,454 X 0.00101 = 220 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

422 – 220 = 202

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

422 ÷ 220 = 1.8980

This reveals 202 lives lost and is 189.80% of what we expected (an increase of 90%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men and women aged 80-84 living in Quebec in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

1,539 ÷ 1,332,075 = 0.00116 (5-yr CDR)

217,454(2022 pop) X 0.00116 = 251 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

422 – 251 = 171 or 171 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

422 ÷ 251 = 1.6653 or an increase of 67%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men and women aged 80-84 living in Quebec in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

1,549,529 X 0.00101 = 1,569 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

1961 – 1,569 = 392 or 392 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

1,961 ÷ 1,569 = 1.2378 or an increase of 24%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men and women aged 80-84 living in Quebec in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.