2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Male – Ages 90+ | Quebec, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly men aged 90+ in Quebec

1. 234 of 5,299 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 4.42% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is up 47% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 159 of 5,475 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 75 excess deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 176 fewer than expected All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 108 excess deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 2,316 fewer than expected All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of Quebec’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are up 47% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men aged 90+ were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 234 of 25,069 elderly men aged 90+ living in Quebec died from Unknown Causes.

234 ÷ 25,069 = 0.00933 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from Unknown Causes

The table shows there were a total of 922 deaths from Unknown Causes among 145,697 elderly men aged 90+ living in Quebec in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

922 ÷ 145,697 = 0.00633 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

25,069 X 0.00633 = 159 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

234 – 159 = 75

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

234 ÷ 159 = 1.4727

This reveals 75 lives lost and is 147.27% of what we expected (an increase of 47%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men aged 90+ living in Quebec in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

938 ÷ 143,041 = 0.00656 (5-yr CDR)

25,069(2022 pop) X 0.00656 = 164 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

234 – 164 = 70 or 70 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

234 ÷ 164 = 1.4213 or an increase of 42%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men aged 90+ living in Quebec in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

168,110 X 0.00633 = 1,064 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

1172 – 1,064 = 108 or 108 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

1,172 ÷ 1,064 = 1.0999 or an increase of 10%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men aged 90+ living in Quebec in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.