2022 Deaths – All Causes – Female – 30-34 | California, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for women aged 30-34 in California

1. 1,165 of 1,165 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 48% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 774 of 774 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 391 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 1,603 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 48% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many women aged 30-34 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 1,165 of 1,446,181 women aged 30-34 living in California died from All Causes.

1,165 ÷ 1,446,181 = 0.00081 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 10,373 deaths from All Causes among 19,380,610 women aged 30-34 living in California in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

10,373 ÷ 19,380,610 = 0.00054 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

1,446,181 X 0.00054 = 774 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

1,165 – 774 = 391

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

1,165 ÷ 774 = 1.4775

This reveals 391 lives lost and is 147.75% of what we expected (an increase of 48%) in deaths from All Causes among women aged 30-34 living in California in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

6,533 ÷ 9,940,859 = 0.00066 (5-yr CDR)

1,446,181(2022 pop) X 0.00066 = 950 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

1,165 – 950 = 215 or 215 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

1,165 ÷ 950 = 1.2074 or an increase of 21%

for deaths from All Causes among women aged 30-34 living in California in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

11,387,040 X 0.00054 = 6,095 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

7698 – 6,095 = 1,603 or 1,603 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

7,698 ÷ 6,095 = 1.2399 or an increase of 24%

in deaths from All Causes among women aged 30-34 living in California in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.