2022 Deaths – All Causes – Female – Ages 40-44 | California, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for women aged 40-44 in California

1. 1,834 of 1,834 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 8% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 1,693 of 1,693 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 141 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 435 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 8% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many women aged 40-44 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 1,834 of 1,272,878 women aged 40-44 living in California died from All Causes.

1,834 ÷ 1,272,878 = 0.00144 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 26,616 deaths from All Causes among 20,010,660 women aged 40-44 living in California in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

26,616 ÷ 20,010,660 = 0.00133 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

1,272,878 X 0.00133 = 1,693 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

1,834 – 1,693 = 141

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

1,834 ÷ 1,693 = 1.0752

This reveals 141 lives lost and is 107.52% of what we expected (an increase of 8%) in deaths from All Causes among women aged 40-44 living in California in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

11,156 ÷ 8,820,535 = 0.00126 (5-yr CDR)

1,272,878(2022 pop) X 0.00126 = 1,610 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

1,834 – 1,610 = 224 or 224 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

1,834 ÷ 1,610 = 1.1303 or an increase of 13%

for deaths from All Causes among women aged 40-44 living in California in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

10,093,413 X 0.00133 = 13,425 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

12990 – 13,425 = -435 or 435 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

12,990 ÷ 13,425 = 0.9604 or a decrease of 4%

in deaths from All Causes among women aged 40-44 living in California in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.