2022 Deaths – All Causes – Female – 65-69 | California, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly women aged 65-69 in California

1. 10,775 of 10,775 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is down 7% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 11,520 of 11,520 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 745 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 9,563 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are down 7% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly women aged 65-69 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 10,775 of 1,030,931 elderly women aged 65-69 living in California died from All Causes.

10,775 ÷ 1,030,931 = 0.01045 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 108,629 deaths from All Causes among 9,720,969 elderly women aged 65-69 living in California in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

108,629 ÷ 9,720,969 = 0.01117 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

1,030,931 X 0.01117 = 11,520 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

10,775 – 11,520 = -745

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

10,775 ÷ 11,520 = 0.9345

This reveals 745 lives saved and is 93.45% of what we expected (a decrease of 7%) in deaths from All Causes among elderly women aged 65-69 living in California in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

68,184 ÷ 6,890,685 = 0.00990 (5-yr CDR)

1,030,931(2022 pop) X 0.00990 = 10,201 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

10,775 – 10,201 = 574 or 574 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

10,775 ÷ 10,201 = 1.0552 or an increase of 6%

for deaths from All Causes among elderly women aged 65-69 living in California in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

7,921,616 X 0.01117 = 88,522 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

78959 – 88,522 = -9,563 or 9,563 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

78,959 ÷ 88,522 = 0.8912 or a decrease of 11%

in deaths from All Causes among elderly women aged 65-69 living in California in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.