2022 Deaths – All Causes – Female – 70-74 | California, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly women aged 70-74 in California

1. 13,562 of 13,562 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is down 12% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 15,367 of 15,367 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 1,805 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 16,158 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are down 12% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly women aged 70-74 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 13,562 of 853,563 elderly women aged 70-74 living in California died from All Causes.

13,562 ÷ 853,563 = 0.01589 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 141,707 deaths from All Causes among 7,870,930 elderly women aged 70-74 living in California in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

141,707 ÷ 7,870,930 = 0.01800 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

853,563 X 0.01800 = 15,367 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

13,562 – 15,367 = -1,805

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

13,562 ÷ 15,367 = 0.8820

This reveals 1,805 lives saved and is 88.20% of what we expected (a decrease of 12%) in deaths from All Causes among elderly women aged 70-74 living in California in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

82,239 ÷ 5,365,058 = 0.01533 (5-yr CDR)

853,563(2022 pop) X 0.01533 = 13,084 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

13,562 – 13,084 = 478 or 478 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

13,562 ÷ 13,084 = 1.0359 or an increase of 4%

for deaths from All Causes among elderly women aged 70-74 living in California in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

6,218,621 X 0.01800 = 111,959 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

95801 – 111,959 = -16,158 or 16,158 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

95,801 ÷ 111,959 = 0.8552 or a decrease of 14%

in deaths from All Causes among elderly women aged 70-74 living in California in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.