2022 Deaths – All Causes – Female – 75-79 | California, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly women aged 75-79 in California

1. 16,525 of 16,525 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is down 12% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 18,776 of 18,776 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 2,251 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 18,583 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are down 12% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly women aged 75-79 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 16,525 of 628,202 elderly women aged 75-79 living in California died from All Causes.

16,525 ÷ 628,202 = 0.02631 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 199,149 deaths from All Causes among 6,663,142 elderly women aged 75-79 living in California in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

199,149 ÷ 6,663,142 = 0.02989 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

628,202 X 0.02989 = 18,776 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

16,525 – 18,776 = -2,251

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

16,525 ÷ 18,776 = 0.8798

This reveals 2,251 lives saved and is 87.98% of what we expected (a decrease of 12%) in deaths from All Causes among elderly women aged 75-79 living in California in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

96,264 ÷ 3,767,258 = 0.02555 (5-yr CDR)

628,202(2022 pop) X 0.02555 = 16,052 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

16,525 – 16,052 = 473 or 473 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

16,525 ÷ 16,052 = 1.0290 or an increase of 3%

for deaths from All Causes among elderly women aged 75-79 living in California in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

4,395,460 X 0.02989 = 131,372 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

112789 – 131,372 = -18,583 or 18,583 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

112,789 ÷ 131,372 = 0.8583 or a decrease of 14%

in deaths from All Causes among elderly women aged 75-79 living in California in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.