2022 Deaths – All Causes – Female – 80+ | California, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly women aged 80+ in California

1. 77,797 of 77,797 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 5% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 73,786 of 73,786 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 4,011 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 33,624 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 5% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly women aged 80+ were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 77,797 of 410,315 elderly women aged 80+ living in California died from All Causes.

77,797 ÷ 410,315 = 0.18960 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 944,815 deaths from All Causes among 5,253,982 elderly women aged 80+ living in California in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

944,815 ÷ 5,253,982 = 0.17983 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

410,315 X 0.17983 = 73,786 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

77,797 – 73,786 = 4,011

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

77,797 ÷ 73,786 = 1.0543

This reveals 4,011 lives lost and is 105.43% of what we expected (an increase of 5%) in deaths from All Causes among elderly women aged 80+ living in California in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

507,771 ÷ 2,658,968 = 0.19097 (5-yr CDR)

410,315(2022 pop) X 0.19097 = 78,356 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

77,797 – 78,356 = -559 or 559 lives saved

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

77,797 ÷ 78,356 = 0.9928 or a decrease of 1%

for deaths from All Causes among elderly women aged 80+ living in California in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

3,069,283 X 0.17983 = 551,944 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

585568 – 551,944 = 33,624 or 33,624 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

585,568 ÷ 551,944 = 1.0609 or an increase of 6%

in deaths from All Causes among elderly women aged 80+ living in California in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.