2022 Deaths – All Causes – Male – Ages 30-34 | California, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for men aged 30-34 in California

1. 3,403 of 3,403 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 84% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 1,833 of 1,833 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 1,570 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 5,216 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 84% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many men aged 30-34 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 3,403 of 1,543,403 men aged 30-34 living in California died from All Causes.

3,403 ÷ 1,543,403 = 0.00220 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 23,941 deaths from All Causes among 20,158,704 men aged 30-34 living in California in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

23,941 ÷ 20,158,704 = 0.00119 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

1,543,403 X 0.00119 = 1,833 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

3,403 – 1,833 = 1,570

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

3,403 ÷ 1,833 = 1.8410

This reveals 1,570 lives lost and is 184.10% of what we expected (an increase of 84%) in deaths from All Causes among men aged 30-34 living in California in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

16,139 ÷ 10,519,339 = 0.00153 (5-yr CDR)

1,543,403(2022 pop) X 0.00153 = 2,368 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

3,403 – 2,368 = 1,035 or 1,035 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

3,403 ÷ 2,368 = 1.4278 or an increase of 43%

for deaths from All Causes among men aged 30-34 living in California in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

12,062,742 X 0.00119 = 14,326 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

19542 – 14,326 = 5,216 or 5,216 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

19,542 ÷ 14,326 = 1.3527 or an increase of 35%

in deaths from All Causes among men aged 30-34 living in California in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.