2022 Deaths – All Causes – Male – Ages 70-74 | California, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly men aged 70-74 in California

1. 18,371 of 18,371 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is down 5% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 19,361 of 19,361 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 990 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 12,327 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are down 5% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men aged 70-74 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 18,371 of 733,196 elderly men aged 70-74 living in California died from All Causes.

18,371 ÷ 733,196 = 0.02506 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 172,093 deaths from All Causes among 6,517,128 elderly men aged 70-74 living in California in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

172,093 ÷ 6,517,128 = 0.02641 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

733,196 X 0.02641 = 19,361 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

18,371 – 19,361 = -990

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

18,371 ÷ 19,361 = 0.9485

This reveals 990 lives saved and is 94.85% of what we expected (a decrease of 5%) in deaths from All Causes among elderly men aged 70-74 living in California in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

109,515 ÷ 4,576,639 = 0.02393 (5-yr CDR)

733,196(2022 pop) X 0.02393 = 17,545 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

18,371 – 17,545 = 826 or 826 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

18,371 ÷ 17,545 = 1.0467 or an increase of 5%

for deaths from All Causes among elderly men aged 70-74 living in California in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

5,309,835 X 0.02641 = 140,213 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

127886 – 140,213 = -12,327 or 12,327 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

127,886 ÷ 140,213 = 0.9117 or a decrease of 9%

in deaths from All Causes among elderly men aged 70-74 living in California in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.