2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Both Sexes – 20-24 | California, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for people aged 20-24 in California

1. 784 of 2,233 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 35.11% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is down 12% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 860 of 2,013 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 76 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 220 excess All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 655 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 1,021 excess All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of California’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are down 12% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many people aged 20-24 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 784 of 2,651,334 people aged 20-24 living in California died from Unknown Causes.

784 ÷ 2,651,334 = 0.00030 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from Unknown Causes

The table shows there were a total of 13,120 deaths from Unknown Causes among 40,461,122 people aged 20-24 living in California in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

13,120 ÷ 40,461,122 = 0.00032 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

2,651,334 X 0.00032 = 860 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

784 – 860 = -76

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

784 ÷ 860 = 0.8846

This reveals 76 lives saved and is 88.46% of what we expected (a decrease of 12%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among people aged 20-24 living in California in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

5,569 ÷ 18,959,768 = 0.00029 (5-yr CDR)

2,651,334(2022 pop) X 0.00029 = 779 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

784 – 779 = 5 or 5 lives saved

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

784 ÷ 779 = 0.9736 or a decrease of 3%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among people aged 20-24 living in California in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

21,611,102 X 0.00032 = 7,008 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

6353 – 7,008 = -655 or 655 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

6,353 ÷ 7,008 = 0.8795 or a decrease of 12%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among people aged 20-24 living in California in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.