2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Both Sexes – Ages 45-49 | California, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for people aged 45-49 in California

1. 1,943 of 7,176 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 27.08% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is down 3% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 1,969 of 6,894 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 26 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 282 excess All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 1,292 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 3,999 fewer than expected All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of California’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are down 3% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many people aged 45-49 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 1,943 of 2,398,337 people aged 45-49 living in California died from Unknown Causes.

1,943 ÷ 2,398,337 = 0.00081 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from Unknown Causes

The table shows there were a total of 31,871 deaths from Unknown Causes among 38,820,180 people aged 45-49 living in California in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

31,871 ÷ 38,820,180 = 0.00082 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

2,398,337 X 0.00082 = 1,969 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

1,943 – 1,969 = -26

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

1,943 ÷ 1,969 = 0.9749

This reveals 26 lives saved and is 97.49% of what we expected (a decrease of 3%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among people aged 45-49 living in California in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

13,334 ÷ 17,783,805 = 0.00075 (5-yr CDR)

2,398,337(2022 pop) X 0.00075 = 1,798 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

1,943 – 1,798 = 145 or 145 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

1,943 ÷ 1,798 = 1.0663 or an increase of 7%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among people aged 45-49 living in California in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

20,182,142 X 0.00082 = 16,569 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

15277 – 16,569 = -1,292 or 1,292 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

15,277 ÷ 16,569 = 0.9109 or a decrease of 9%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among people aged 45-49 living in California in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.