2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Both Sexes – Ages 50-54 | California, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for people aged 50-54 in California

1. 2,377 of 10,435 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 22.78% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is down 2% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 2,403 of 10,728 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 26 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 293 fewer than expected All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 1,583 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 4,419 fewer than expected All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of California’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are down 2% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many people aged 50-54 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 2,377 of 2,471,944 people aged 50-54 living in California died from Unknown Causes.

2,377 ÷ 2,471,944 = 0.00096 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from Unknown Causes

The table shows there were a total of 34,833 deaths from Unknown Causes among 35,826,711 people aged 50-54 living in California in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

34,833 ÷ 35,826,711 = 0.00097 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

2,471,944 X 0.00097 = 2,403 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

2,377 – 2,403 = -26

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

2,377 ÷ 2,403 = 0.9790

This reveals 26 lives saved and is 97.90% of what we expected (a decrease of 2%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among people aged 50-54 living in California in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

15,663 ÷ 17,711,206 = 0.00088 (5-yr CDR)

2,471,944(2022 pop) X 0.00088 = 2,186 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

2,377 – 2,186 = 191 or 191 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

2,377 ÷ 2,186 = 1.0752 or an increase of 8%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among people aged 50-54 living in California in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

20,183,150 X 0.00097 = 19,623 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

18040 – 19,623 = -1,583 or 1,583 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

18,040 ÷ 19,623 = 0.9100 or a decrease of 9%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among people aged 50-54 living in California in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.