2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Both Sexes – Ages 80-84 | California, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly men and women aged 80-84 in California

1. 3,303 of 38,782 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 8.52% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is down 2% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 3,355 of 42,020 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 52 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 3,238 fewer than expected All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 1,068 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 34,206 fewer than expected All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of California’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are down 2% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men and women aged 80-84 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 3,303 of 714,480 elderly men and women aged 80-84 living in California died from Unknown Causes.

3,303 ÷ 714,480 = 0.00462 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from Unknown Causes

The table shows there were a total of 41,441 deaths from Unknown Causes among 8,826,436 elderly men and women aged 80-84 living in California in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

41,441 ÷ 8,826,436 = 0.00470 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

714,480 X 0.00470 = 3,355 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

3,303 – 3,355 = -52

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

3,303 ÷ 3,355 = 0.9825

This reveals 52 lives saved and is 98.25% of what we expected (a decrease of 2%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men and women aged 80-84 living in California in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

20,744 ÷ 4,634,678 = 0.00448 (5-yr CDR)

714,480(2022 pop) X 0.00448 = 3,198 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

3,303 – 3,198 = 105 or 105 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

3,303 ÷ 3,198 = 1.0306 or an increase of 3%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men and women aged 80-84 living in California in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

5,349,158 X 0.00470 = 25,115 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

24047 – 25,115 = -1,068 or 1,068 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

24,047 ÷ 25,115 = 0.9554 or a decrease of 4%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men and women aged 80-84 living in California in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.