2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Male – Ages 80+ | California, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly men aged 80+ in California

1. 5,386 of 60,301 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 8.93% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is up 5% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 5,137 of 55,657 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 249 excess deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 4,644 excess All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 1,084 excess deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 25,357 excess All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of California’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are up 5% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men aged 80+ were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 5,386 of 304,165 elderly men aged 80+ living in California died from Unknown Causes.

5,386 ÷ 304,165 = 0.01771 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from Unknown Causes

The table shows there were a total of 60,333 deaths from Unknown Causes among 3,572,454 elderly men aged 80+ living in California in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

60,333 ÷ 3,572,454 = 0.01689 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

304,165 X 0.01689 = 5,137 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

5,386 – 5,137 = 249

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

5,386 ÷ 5,137 = 1.0479

This reveals 249 lives lost and is 104.79% of what we expected (an increase of 5%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men aged 80+ living in California in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

34,201 ÷ 1,975,710 = 0.01731 (5-yr CDR)

304,165(2022 pop) X 0.01731 = 5,265 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

5,386 – 5,265 = 121 or 121 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

5,386 ÷ 5,265 = 1.0223 or an increase of 2%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men aged 80+ living in California in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

2,279,875 X 0.01689 = 38,503 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

39587 – 38,503 = 1,084 or 1,084 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

39,587 ÷ 38,503 = 1.0275 or an increase of 3%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men aged 80+ living in California in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.