2022 Deaths – All Causes – Female – Ages 80+ | Illinois, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly women aged 80+ in Illinois

1. 30,305 of 30,305 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 1% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 30,053 of 30,053 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 252 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 14,380 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 1% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly women aged 80+ were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 30,305 of 147,196 elderly women aged 80+ living in Illinois died from All Causes.

30,305 ÷ 147,196 = 0.20588 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 440,748 deaths from All Causes among 2,158,711 elderly women aged 80+ living in Illinois in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

440,748 ÷ 2,158,711 = 0.20417 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

147,196 X 0.20417 = 30,053 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

30,305 – 30,053 = 252

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

30,305 ÷ 30,053 = 1.0083

This reveals 252 lives lost and is 100.83% of what we expected (an increase of 1%) in deaths from All Causes among elderly women aged 80+ living in Illinois in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

211,540 ÷ 966,890 = 0.21878 (5-yr CDR)

147,196(2022 pop) X 0.21878 = 32,204 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

30,305 – 32,204 = -1,899 or 1,899 lives saved

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

30,305 ÷ 32,204 = 0.9410 or a decrease of 6%

for deaths from All Causes among elderly women aged 80+ living in Illinois in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

1,114,086 X 0.20417 = 227,465 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

241845 – 227,465 = 14,380 or 14,380 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

241,845 ÷ 227,465 = 1.0632 or an increase of 6%

in deaths from All Causes among elderly women aged 80+ living in Illinois in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.