2022 Deaths – All Causes – Male – Ages 30-34 | New York, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for men aged 30-34 in New York

1. 1,339 of 1,339 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 56% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 852 of 852 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 487 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 2,460 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 56% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many men aged 30-34 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 1,339 of 712,290 men aged 30-34 living in New York died from All Causes.

1,339 ÷ 712,290 = 0.00188 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 11,714 deaths from All Causes among 9,794,778 men aged 30-34 living in New York in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

11,714 ÷ 9,794,778 = 0.00120 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

712,290 X 0.00120 = 852 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

1,339 – 852 = 487

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

1,339 ÷ 852 = 1.5588

This reveals 487 lives lost and is 155.88% of what we expected (an increase of 56%) in deaths from All Causes among men aged 30-34 living in New York in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

7,842 ÷ 4,907,508 = 0.00160 (5-yr CDR)

712,290(2022 pop) X 0.00160 = 1,138 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

1,339 – 1,138 = 201 or 201 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

1,339 ÷ 1,138 = 1.1691 or an increase of 17%

for deaths from All Causes among men aged 30-34 living in New York in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

5,619,798 X 0.00120 = 6,721 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

9181 – 6,721 = 2,460 or 2,460 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

9,181 ÷ 6,721 = 1.3547 or an increase of 35%

in deaths from All Causes among men aged 30-34 living in New York in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.