2022 Deaths – All Causes – Male – Ages 35-39 | New York, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for men aged 35-39 in New York

1. 1,619 of 1,619 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 53% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 1,055 of 1,055 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 564 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 2,315 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 53% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many men aged 35-39 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 1,619 of 658,741 men aged 35-39 living in New York died from All Causes.

1,619 ÷ 658,741 = 0.00246 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 16,043 deaths from All Causes among 10,017,237 men aged 35-39 living in New York in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

16,043 ÷ 10,017,237 = 0.00160 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

658,741 X 0.00160 = 1,055 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

1,619 – 1,055 = 564

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

1,619 ÷ 1,055 = 1.5251

This reveals 564 lives lost and is 152.51% of what we expected (an increase of 53%) in deaths from All Causes among men aged 35-39 living in New York in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

8,854 ÷ 4,435,405 = 0.00200 (5-yr CDR)

658,741(2022 pop) X 0.00200 = 1,315 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

1,619 – 1,315 = 304 or 304 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

1,619 ÷ 1,315 = 1.2251 or an increase of 23%

for deaths from All Causes among men aged 35-39 living in New York in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

5,094,146 X 0.00160 = 8,158 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

10473 – 8,158 = 2,315 or 2,315 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

10,473 ÷ 8,158 = 1.2757 or an increase of 28%

in deaths from All Causes among men aged 35-39 living in New York in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.