2022 Deaths – All Causes – Male – Ages 70-74 | New York, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly men aged 70-74 in New York

1. 10,023 of 10,023 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is down 14% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 11,712 of 11,712 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 1,689 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 9,543 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are down 14% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men aged 70-74 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 10,023 of 415,734 elderly men aged 70-74 living in New York died from All Causes.

10,023 ÷ 415,734 = 0.02411 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 110,982 deaths from All Causes among 3,939,409 elderly men aged 70-74 living in New York in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

110,982 ÷ 3,939,409 = 0.02817 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

415,734 X 0.02817 = 11,712 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

10,023 – 11,712 = -1,689

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

10,023 ÷ 11,712 = 0.8555

This reveals 1,689 lives saved and is 85.55% of what we expected (a decrease of 14%) in deaths from All Causes among elderly men aged 70-74 living in New York in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

62,824 ÷ 2,508,791 = 0.02504 (5-yr CDR)

415,734(2022 pop) X 0.02504 = 10,411 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

10,023 – 10,411 = -388 or 388 lives saved

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

10,023 ÷ 10,411 = 0.9624 or a decrease of 4%

for deaths from All Causes among elderly men aged 70-74 living in New York in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

2,924,525 X 0.02817 = 82,390 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

72847 – 82,390 = -9,543 or 9,543 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

72,847 ÷ 82,390 = 0.8839 or a decrease of 12%

in deaths from All Causes among elderly men aged 70-74 living in New York in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.