2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Both Sexes – Ages 50-54 | New York, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for people aged 50-54 in New York

1. 1,711 of 5,415 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 31.60% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is up 6% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 1,598 of 5,546 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 113 excess deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 131 fewer than expected All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 672 excess deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 1,565 fewer than expected All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of New York’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are up 6% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many people aged 50-54 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 1,711 of 1,258,606 people aged 50-54 living in New York died from Unknown Causes.

1,711 ÷ 1,258,606 = 0.00136 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from Unknown Causes

The table shows there were a total of 25,644 deaths from Unknown Causes among 20,199,974 people aged 50-54 living in New York in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

25,644 ÷ 20,199,974 = 0.00127 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

1,258,606 X 0.00127 = 1,598 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

1,711 – 1,598 = 113

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

1,711 ÷ 1,598 = 1.0625

This reveals 113 lives lost and is 106.25% of what we expected (an increase of 6%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among people aged 50-54 living in New York in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

12,388 ÷ 9,318,308 = 0.00133 (5-yr CDR)

1,258,606(2022 pop) X 0.00133 = 1,673 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

1,711 – 1,673 = 38 or 38 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

1,711 ÷ 1,673 = 1.0149 or an increase of 1%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among people aged 50-54 living in New York in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

10,576,914 X 0.00127 = 13,427 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

14099 – 13,427 = 672 or 672 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

14,099 ÷ 13,427 = 1.0418 or an increase of 4%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among people aged 50-54 living in New York in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.