2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Female – Ages 15-19 | New York, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for teen-aged girls aged 15-19 in New York

1. 92 of 127 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 72.44% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is down 30% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 126 of 138 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 34 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 11 fewer than expected All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 237 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 213 fewer than expected All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of New York’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are down 30% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many teen-aged girls aged 15-19 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 92 of 585,508 teen-aged girls aged 15-19 living in New York died from Unknown Causes.

92 ÷ 585,508 = 0.00016 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from Unknown Causes

The table shows there were a total of 2,102 deaths from Unknown Causes among 9,758,586 teen-aged girls aged 15-19 living in New York in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

2,102 ÷ 9,758,586 = 0.00022 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

585,508 X 0.00022 = 126 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

92 – 126 = -34

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

92 ÷ 126 = 0.6971

This reveals 34 lives saved and is 69.71% of what we expected (a decrease of 30%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among teen-aged girls aged 15-19 living in New York in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

689 ÷ 4,142,352 = 0.00017 (5-yr CDR)

585,508(2022 pop) X 0.00017 = 97 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

92 – 97 = -5 or 5 lives saved

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

92 ÷ 97 = 0.8911 or a decrease of 11%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among teen-aged girls aged 15-19 living in New York in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

4,727,860 X 0.00022 = 1,018 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

781 – 1,018 = -237 or 237 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

781 ÷ 1,018 = 0.7329 or a decrease of 27%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among teen-aged girls aged 15-19 living in New York in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.