2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Female – 70-74 | New York, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly women aged 70-74 in New York

1. 1,308 of 7,753 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 16.87% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is down 3% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 1,338 of 9,277 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 30 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 1,524 fewer than expected All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 536 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 8,382 fewer than expected All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of New York’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are down 3% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly women aged 70-74 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 1,308 of 492,787 elderly women aged 70-74 living in New York died from Unknown Causes.

1,308 ÷ 492,787 = 0.00265 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from Unknown Causes

The table shows there were a total of 13,729 deaths from Unknown Causes among 5,057,352 elderly women aged 70-74 living in New York in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

13,729 ÷ 5,057,352 = 0.00271 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

492,787 X 0.00271 = 1,338 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

1,308 – 1,338 = -30

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

1,308 ÷ 1,338 = 0.9742

This reveals 30 lives saved and is 97.42% of what we expected (a decrease of 3%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly women aged 70-74 living in New York in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

7,793 ÷ 3,057,187 = 0.00255 (5-yr CDR)

492,787(2022 pop) X 0.00255 = 1,256 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

1,308 – 1,256 = 52 or 52 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

1,308 ÷ 1,256 = 1.0372 or an increase of 4%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly women aged 70-74 living in New York in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

3,549,974 X 0.00271 = 9,637 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

9101 – 9,637 = -536 or 536 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

9,101 ÷ 9,637 = 0.9409 or a decrease of 6%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly women aged 70-74 living in New York in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.