2022 Deaths – All Causes – Male – Ages 15-19 | Texas, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for teen-aged boys aged 15-19 in Texas

1. 1,011 of 1,011 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 11% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 903 of 903 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 108 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 302 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 11% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many teen-aged boys aged 15-19 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 1,011 of 1,106,893 teen-aged boys aged 15-19 living in Texas died from All Causes.

1,011 ÷ 1,106,893 = 0.00091 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 11,328 deaths from All Causes among 13,884,324 teen-aged boys aged 15-19 living in Texas in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

11,328 ÷ 13,884,324 = 0.00082 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

1,106,893 X 0.00082 = 903 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

1,011 – 903 = 108

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

1,011 ÷ 903 = 1.1059

This reveals 108 lives lost and is 110.59% of what we expected (an increase of 11%) in deaths from All Causes among teen-aged boys aged 15-19 living in Texas in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

5,513 ÷ 7,259,213 = 0.00076 (5-yr CDR)

1,106,893(2022 pop) X 0.00076 = 841 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

1,011 – 841 = 170 or 170 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

1,011 ÷ 841 = 1.1870 or an increase of 19%

for deaths from All Causes among teen-aged boys aged 15-19 living in Texas in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

8,366,106 X 0.00082 = 6,826 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

6524 – 6,826 = -302 or 302 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

6,524 ÷ 6,826 = 0.9442 or a decrease of 6%

in deaths from All Causes among teen-aged boys aged 15-19 living in Texas in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.