2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Baby – Under 1 | Texas, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for babies in their first year of life in Texas

1. 1,232 of 2,243 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 54.93% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is up 2% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 1,206 of 2,375 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 26 excess deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 132 fewer than expected All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 758 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 2,215 fewer than expected All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of Texas’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are up 2% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many babies in their first year of life were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 1,232 of 378,682 babies in their first year of life living in Texas died from Unknown Causes.

1,232 ÷ 378,682 = 0.00325 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from Unknown Causes

The table shows there were a total of 17,940 deaths from Unknown Causes among 5,632,122 babies in their first year of life living in Texas in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

17,940 ÷ 5,632,122 = 0.00319 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

378,682 X 0.00319 = 1,206 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

1,232 – 1,206 = 26

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

1,232 ÷ 1,206 = 1.0182

This reveals 26 lives lost and is 101.82% of what we expected (an increase of 2%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among babies in their first year of life living in Texas in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

7,862 ÷ 2,714,221 = 0.00290 (5-yr CDR)

378,682(2022 pop) X 0.00290 = 1,097 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

1,232 – 1,097 = 135 or 135 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

1,232 ÷ 1,097 = 1.1193 or an increase of 12%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among babies in their first year of life living in Texas in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

3,092,903 X 0.00319 = 9,852 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

9094 – 9,852 = -758 or 758 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

9,094 ÷ 9,852 = 0.9202 or a decrease of 8%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among babies in their first year of life living in Texas in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.