2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Teen-aged – Ages 15-19 | Texas, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for teens aged 15-19 in Texas

1. 536 of 1,413 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 37.93% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is down 21% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 661 of 1,281 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 125 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 132 excess All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 954 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 597 fewer than expected All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of Texas’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are down 21% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many teens aged 15-19 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 536 of 2,152,692 teens aged 15-19 living in Texas died from Unknown Causes.

536 ÷ 2,152,692 = 0.00025 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from Unknown Causes

The table shows there were a total of 8,254 deaths from Unknown Causes among 26,888,785 teens aged 15-19 living in Texas in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

8,254 ÷ 26,888,785 = 0.00031 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

2,152,692 X 0.00031 = 661 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

536 – 661 = -125

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

536 ÷ 661 = 0.7855

This reveals 125 lives saved and is 78.55% of what we expected (a decrease of 21%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among teens aged 15-19 living in Texas in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

3,526 ÷ 14,188,900 = 0.00025 (5-yr CDR)

2,152,692(2022 pop) X 0.00025 = 535 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

536 – 535 = 1 or 1 lives saved

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

536 ÷ 535 = 0.9632 or a decrease of 4%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among teens aged 15-19 living in Texas in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

16,341,592 X 0.00031 = 5,016 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

4062 – 5,016 = -954 or 954 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

4,062 ÷ 5,016 = 0.7842 or a decrease of 22%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among teens aged 15-19 living in Texas in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.