2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Both Sexes – Ages 35-39 | Texas, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for people aged 35-39 in Texas

1. 1,556 of 4,212 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 36.94% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is down 7% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 1,658 of 3,144 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 102 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 1,068 excess All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 1,058 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 4,061 excess All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of Texas’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are down 7% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many people aged 35-39 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 1,556 of 2,151,212 people aged 35-39 living in Texas died from Unknown Causes.

1,556 ÷ 2,151,212 = 0.00072 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from Unknown Causes

The table shows there were a total of 19,722 deaths from Unknown Causes among 25,587,696 people aged 35-39 living in Texas in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

19,722 ÷ 25,587,696 = 0.00077 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

2,151,212 X 0.00077 = 1,658 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

1,556 – 1,658 = -102

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

1,556 ÷ 1,658 = 0.9264

This reveals 102 lives saved and is 92.64% of what we expected (a decrease of 7%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among people aged 35-39 living in Texas in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

9,887 ÷ 14,067,615 = 0.00070 (5-yr CDR)

2,151,212(2022 pop) X 0.00070 = 1,512 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

1,556 – 1,512 = 44 or 44 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

1,556 ÷ 1,512 = 1.0147 or an increase of 1%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among people aged 35-39 living in Texas in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

16,218,827 X 0.00077 = 12,501 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

11443 – 12,501 = -1,058 or 1,058 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

11,443 ÷ 12,501 = 0.9037 or a decrease of 10%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among people aged 35-39 living in Texas in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.