2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Both Sexes – Ages 40-44 | Texas, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for people aged 40-44 in Texas

1. 1,722 of 5,168 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 33.32% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is down 8% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 1,852 of 4,551 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 130 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 617 excess All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 1,021 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 633 excess All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of Texas’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are down 8% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many people aged 40-44 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 1,722 of 2,052,394 people aged 40-44 living in Texas died from Unknown Causes.

1,722 ÷ 2,052,394 = 0.00084 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from Unknown Causes

The table shows there were a total of 23,230 deaths from Unknown Causes among 25,748,553 people aged 40-44 living in Texas in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

23,230 ÷ 25,748,553 = 0.00090 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

2,052,394 X 0.00090 = 1,852 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

1,722 – 1,852 = -130

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

1,722 ÷ 1,852 = 0.9198

This reveals 130 lives saved and is 91.98% of what we expected (a decrease of 8%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among people aged 40-44 living in Texas in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

10,946 ÷ 13,121,122 = 0.00083 (5-yr CDR)

2,052,394(2022 pop) X 0.00083 = 1,712 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

1,722 – 1,712 = 10 or 10 lives saved

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

1,722 ÷ 1,712 = 0.9938 or a decrease of 1%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among people aged 40-44 living in Texas in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

15,173,516 X 0.00090 = 13,689 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

12668 – 13,689 = -1,021 or 1,021 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

12,668 ÷ 13,689 = 0.9152 or a decrease of 8%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among people aged 40-44 living in Texas in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.