2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Both Sexes – Ages 45-49 | Texas, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for people aged 45-49 in Texas

1. 1,889 of 6,347 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 29.76% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is down 9% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 2,052 of 6,346 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 163 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 1 fewer than expected All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 1,422 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 1,171 fewer than expected All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of Texas’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are down 9% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many people aged 45-49 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 1,889 of 1,856,501 people aged 45-49 living in Texas died from Unknown Causes.

1,889 ÷ 1,856,501 = 0.00102 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from Unknown Causes

The table shows there were a total of 27,408 deaths from Unknown Causes among 24,791,015 people aged 45-49 living in Texas in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

27,408 ÷ 24,791,015 = 0.00111 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

1,856,501 X 0.00111 = 2,052 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

1,889 – 2,052 = -163

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

1,889 ÷ 2,052 = 0.9121

This reveals 163 lives saved and is 91.21% of what we expected (a decrease of 9%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among people aged 45-49 living in Texas in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

12,825 ÷ 12,738,598 = 0.00101 (5-yr CDR)

1,856,501(2022 pop) X 0.00101 = 1,869 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

1,889 – 1,869 = 20 or 20 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

1,889 ÷ 1,869 = 1.0007 or an increase of 0%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among people aged 45-49 living in Texas in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

14,595,099 X 0.00111 = 16,136 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

14714 – 16,136 = -1,422 or 1,422 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

14,714 ÷ 16,136 = 0.9037 or a decrease of 10%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among people aged 45-49 living in Texas in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.