2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Girls And Boys – Ages 5-9 | Texas, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for children aged 5-9 in Texas

1. 251 of 264 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 95.07% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is down 19% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 288 of 296 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 37 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 32 fewer than expected All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 332 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 350 fewer than expected All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of Texas’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are down 19% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many children aged 5-9 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 251 of 2,085,857 children aged 5-9 living in Texas died from Unknown Causes.

251 ÷ 2,085,857 = 0.00012 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from Unknown Causes

The table shows there were a total of 3,720 deaths from Unknown Causes among 26,936,065 children aged 5-9 living in Texas in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

3,720 ÷ 26,936,065 = 0.00014 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

2,085,857 X 0.00014 = 288 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

251 – 288 = -37

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

251 ÷ 288 = 0.8125

This reveals 37 lives saved and is 81.25% of what we expected (a decrease of 19%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among children aged 5-9 living in Texas in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

1,693 ÷ 14,393,179 = 0.00012 (5-yr CDR)

2,085,857(2022 pop) X 0.00012 = 245 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

251 – 245 = 6 or 6 lives saved

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

251 ÷ 245 = 0.9429 or a decrease of 6%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among children aged 5-9 living in Texas in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

16,479,036 X 0.00014 = 2,276 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

1944 – 2,276 = -332 or 332 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

1,944 ÷ 2,276 = 0.7965 or a decrease of 20%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among children aged 5-9 living in Texas in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.