2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Both Sexes – Ages 55-59 | Texas, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for people aged 55-59 in Texas

1. 2,708 of 13,543 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 20.00% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is down 3% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 2,781 of 12,903 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 73 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 640 excess All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 1,713 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 4,907 excess All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of Texas’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are down 3% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many people aged 55-59 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 2,708 of 1,684,359 people aged 55-59 living in Texas died from Unknown Causes.

2,708 ÷ 1,684,359 = 0.00161 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from Unknown Causes

The table shows there were a total of 31,698 deaths from Unknown Causes among 19,201,654 people aged 55-59 living in Texas in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

31,698 ÷ 19,201,654 = 0.00165 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

1,684,359 X 0.00165 = 2,781 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

2,708 – 2,781 = -73

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

2,708 ÷ 2,781 = 0.9681

This reveals 73 lives saved and is 96.81% of what we expected (a decrease of 3%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among people aged 55-59 living in Texas in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

18,006 ÷ 11,900,942 = 0.00151 (5-yr CDR)

1,684,359(2022 pop) X 0.00151 = 2,548 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

2,708 – 2,548 = 160 or 160 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

2,708 ÷ 2,548 = 1.0556 or an increase of 6%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among people aged 55-59 living in Texas in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

13,585,301 X 0.00165 = 22,427 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

20714 – 22,427 = -1,713 or 1,713 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

20,714 ÷ 22,427 = 0.9181 or a decrease of 8%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among people aged 55-59 living in Texas in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.