2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Male – Ages 80+ | Texas, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly men aged 80+ in Texas

1. 4,488 of 38,498 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 11.66% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is down 5% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 4,703 of 35,572 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 215 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 2,926 excess All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 2,634 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 12,503 excess All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of Texas’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are down 5% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men aged 80+ were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 4,488 of 186,051 elderly men aged 80+ living in Texas died from Unknown Causes.

4,488 ÷ 186,051 = 0.02412 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from Unknown Causes

The table shows there were a total of 49,203 deaths from Unknown Causes among 1,946,403 elderly men aged 80+ living in Texas in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

49,203 ÷ 1,946,403 = 0.02528 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

186,051 X 0.02528 = 4,703 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

4,488 – 4,703 = -215

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

4,488 ÷ 4,703 = 0.9539

This reveals 215 lives saved and is 95.39% of what we expected (a decrease of 5%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men aged 80+ living in Texas in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

27,938 ÷ 1,200,870 = 0.02326 (5-yr CDR)

186,051(2022 pop) X 0.02326 = 4,328 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

4,488 – 4,328 = 160 or 160 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

4,488 ÷ 4,328 = 1.0364 or an increase of 4%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men aged 80+ living in Texas in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

1,386,921 X 0.02528 = 35,060 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

32426 – 35,060 = -2,634 or 2,634 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

32,426 ÷ 35,060 = 0.9245 or a decrease of 8%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men aged 80+ living in Texas in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.