2022 Deaths – All Causes – Male – Ages 30-34 | Washington, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for men aged 30-34 in Washington

1. 728 of 728 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 91% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 379 of 379 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 349 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 932 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 91% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many men aged 30-34 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 728 of 323,725 men aged 30-34 living in Washington died from All Causes.

728 ÷ 323,725 = 0.00225 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 4,016 deaths from All Causes among 3,431,352 men aged 30-34 living in Washington in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

4,016 ÷ 3,431,352 = 0.00117 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

323,725 X 0.00117 = 379 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

728 – 379 = 349

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

728 ÷ 379 = 1.9052

This reveals 349 lives lost and is 190.52% of what we expected (an increase of 91%) in deaths from All Causes among men aged 30-34 living in Washington in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

2,960 ÷ 2,031,061 = 0.00146 (5-yr CDR)

323,725(2022 pop) X 0.00146 = 472 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

728 – 472 = 256 or 256 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

728 ÷ 472 = 1.5326 or an increase of 53%

for deaths from All Causes among men aged 30-34 living in Washington in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

2,354,786 X 0.00117 = 2,756 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

3688 – 2,756 = 932 or 932 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

3,688 ÷ 2,756 = 1.3268 or an increase of 33%

in deaths from All Causes among men aged 30-34 living in Washington in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.